Water AlliesTier 2
at CMD Regional Championship
decks
2
(6.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
5-6-1
overall winrate
45.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.1%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
44.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1234
· median 1234
· range 1151–1317
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1205
Q3 1378
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 21.2% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 39.1% | -5.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 15.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.6 |
| Wind Allies | 15.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.0% | +16.4 |
| Fire Neos | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Vanitas | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
